Timeline of AI forecasts

What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.

Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.

These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.

Last updated: April 23, 2025

Today

FDA authorizes 1,000 AI/ML medical devices50% by Jun

OpenAI announces GPT-550% by Aug

AI achieves 90% on SWE-Bench Verified50% by Oct

AI scores 85% on the ARC benchmark50% by Nov

Nvidia shares reach a new high64% by Dec

China has the top open LLM57% by Dec

Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS46% by Dec

OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench41% by Dec

Agents like OpenAI's Operator are practically useful39% by Dec

AI exceeds 85% on FrontierMath benchmark30% by Dec

OpenAI launches a more expensive model than o1-pro53% by Jan

OpenAI identifies high AI persuasion risk52% by Jan

OpenAI stops sharing new models with AISI before release39% by Jan

US bans distribution of deepfakes of public persons38% by Jan

Deepfake video sparks major political controversy involving a head of state58% by Jan

Chinese AI surpasses o3's Frontier Math score51% by Jan

US Federal Government bans sharing deepfake nudes41% by Jan

AI achieves a ≥98th percentile score on Mensa IQ test50% by Jan

Fewer US programming jobs than a year ago51% by Mar

Prominent US politicians advocate banning open-weight AI models67% by Apr

AI concern goes mainstream in the US50% by Apr

Open-source AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad50% by Jun

AI is regularly used to diagnose complex diseases32% by Jul

Machines reach kindergartner-level LEGO building skills50% by Nov

A humanoid robot breaks the human marathon record53% by Dec

AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal49% by Dec

The ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed37% by Dec

AI achieves >80% on FrontierMath benchmark68% by Jan

AI-generated song tops Billboard Hot 10041% by Jan

More than half of the US population works with AI daily42% by Jan

AI solves over 80% of competition-level coding problems on the first try50% by Apr

AI is recursively self-improving45% by Aug

AI matches average accountant in tax preparation64% by Jan

More people interact with AI via voice than text33% by Jan

AI achieves >85% on FrontierMath benchmark63% by Jan

A humanoid robot causes a human death31% by Jan

China manufactures domestic EUV lithography equipment (used in chip production)50% by Jan

500K humanoid robots are manufactured43% by Mar

AI publishes in a top 50 scientific journal50% by Sep

AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election70% by Nov

AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion53% by Jan

False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan

AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election65% by Jan

AI can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers50% by Jan

Tesla Bots become available to US consumers50% by Mar

An AI-generated book makes the NYT Best Seller list50% by Mar

AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam Math Competition50% by Sep

An AI-generated film ranks #1 on a popular streaming service50% by Nov

AI virally self-replicates on the open internet70% by Jan

International aggression over AI occurs64% by Jan

Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI during AGI release63% by Jan

AI system makes $50m by investing $1m63% by Jan

An international AI regulatory agency is established50% by Jan

100k person anti-AI protest occurs46% by Jan

Backpropagation takes a back seat34% by Jan

Neuralink achieves telepathy with its technology69% by Jan

David Chalmers believes in conscious AI57% by Jan

A humanoid robot causes a human death48% by Jan

The majority of entertainment is AI-generated32% by Jan

US government maintains AI safety incident list59% by Jan

Tech giant offers AI-conducted university course50% by Apr

Compute threshold for AI models in California is raised before 203055% by Jun

AI-generated paper accepted into Nature58% by Dec

AI training cluster reaches $1 trillion value65% by Jan

AI extends the English language54% by Mar

AI creates a critically acclaimed feature film50% by Aug

A supermarket operates fully with AI50% by Apr

The first fully autonomous surgery on a human is performed50% by Aug

Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI50% by Sep

AI enables communication with animals66% by May

AI solves the next Millennium Prize Problem40% by Dec

OpenAI reaches its profit cap for initial investors51% by Jan

US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab45% by Jan

Military operation aims to slow AI development32% by Jan

AI catastrophe occurs (if it happens this century)50% by May

AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem50% by Jul

World GDP grows by >30% annually due to AI50% by Jun

AI is mentioned in a major country's constitution50% by May

A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot45% by Jan

Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common45% by Jan

A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center55% by Jan

AI independently prescribes the majority of medication in the US50% by Oct

AI writes 25% of NYT Best Selling Fiction33% by Feb

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Demos

Agent Village

Watch frontier AIs interact with each other and the world

Apr 1, 2025 by Zak Miller

Beyond Chat: AI Agent Demo

Watch an AI agent send emails and shop online in real-time

Oct 24, 2024 by Zak Miller and Adam Binksmith

AI Can or Can't

Quiz yourself on what today's AI can do

Aug 27, 2024 by Zak Miller

How can AI disrupt elections?

Talk to an interactive demo of current AI capabilities for election fraud

Mar 18, 2024 by Adam Binksmith

Explainers

AI 2025 Forecasts - May Update

A review of how the predictions are holding up so far

May 8, 2025 by Adam Binksmith, Romeo Dean and Eli Lifland

A new Moore's Law for AI agents

The length of tasks that agents can do is growing exponentially

Mar 27, 2025 by Adam Binksmith and Eli Lifland

AIs are becoming more self-aware

Here's why that matters

Dec 18, 2024 by Zak Miller and Sanyu Rajakumar

Compare Claude 3, GPT-4 and Gemini Ultra, side-by-side

Explore the performance of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google's most capable language models

Mar 5, 2024 by Adam Binksmith

How fast is AI improving?

Compare how GPT-2, GPT-3, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 perform on the same tasks

Oct 26, 2023 by Adam Binksmith, Euan McLean, Eli Lifland, and Aaron Ho

Showing 83 curated forecasts